Miller wrote:So your saying if he did this trick 100 times he would survive every time because all 100 people would pick the same number?
Nope.
Hence why he has such a huge process of finding the right guy. Whilst Derren does use classic magical manipulation sometimes and dress it up as psychological; he does also influence people through language and suggestion (well, actually all magicians do, but he does it more purely as he is influencing mental decisions rather than selections or observations of physical objects)... which is why there's such a huge process to selecting that guy who he eventually picks.
His goal for this is to find THEE most suggestible guy possible and the reason for that is so that when this guy picks up on Derren's influence / signals and feels himself urging towards what Derren wants, he will not resist it - as he is a suggestible person who is easily influenced and likes to please, therefore he will not try to catch Derren out and Derren will be able to tell when he's gone with what he wants. A cocky, cynical and resistant person would be too rebellious and standoffish and combative to ever be a comfortable choice for something like this for example.
So, if Derren did it 100 times on this 'kind' of person that he chose through a very detailed selection process to determine how they think, how predictable they are, whether they're socially pressured or anti-social and alll these things he's always analyzing, then yes he would probably survive 100.
Just like I could perform the same baffling card trick on most people 1,000 times and never once be caught out... but give me a person who isn't paying attention, dislikes me from the get-go, wants me to fail and is destructive to the flow of the routine... I'd probably fail every time. And all magic has reliable elements of psychology to it, such as me knowing a person will always look down when I motion downwards on an off-beat in a sentence... you may not think people are this predictable or easy to control but in these circumstances, they are. As they are suggestible.
Magic puts people in a state of heightened suggestion to begin with, as people are entering a silent contract to be fooled and see something amazing happen... and because of that, people on some level give you the right to direct and control them, so if you so much as mildly imply somebody do something - they will, as they have already decided you are in control, are the director of this experience and that they have to follow your lead to see the results.
So take ALL of that, + the fact this guy is already a fan of Derren, + the fact that he's an empathetic, suggestible, nice man who obviously doesn't want to see Derren shoot his head off and you have one of THEE most heightened states of suggestion possible, in an already very easy-to-influence personality-type. Influencing somebody to pick a number you want them to pick, out of 6, in those conditions, with that psychology and atmosphere at work... is not all that impressive. But make the choice a bullet and a gun chamber... and it suddenly feels like a gigantic risk.
Dramatic brilliance.